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Post by dans on May 2, 2020 23:20:32 GMT
In a story I'm writing, I want to have someone accidentally place a wager on the highest payoff bet in an illegal casino, plyaing the game of Avalanche, and win.
Avalanche was created by Jon Clark - it involves throwing 4 dice, one each of D6, D8, D12 and D20, and bettors can wager on various combinations coming up. The combinations are kind of like poker hands, 1 pair, two pair, three of a kind, straight, 4 of a kind with some other unique possibilities - for example, the D20 showing the lowest value, or the D6 showing the highest value, and of course there are hundreds of other possibilities. All odd, or all even. The sides of the dice could be different colors, and a payoff if they are all showing the same color. (so that gives some more poker analogs - a flush and a straight flush).
1. The lowest probability event I can see is all 4 dice each showing their highest possible value, 6, 8, 12, 20. But that should happen 1 out of 11,520 rolls. I'd like a lower probability bet, but it doesn't jump out at me. Any suggestions? I'd like an event where the casino's payout is 1 million to 1, and the odds against that even are even higher - but I don't see how to do that with only 4 dice.
So it is an illegal casino, so of course the game is rigged. Whatever the highest paying bet is the game is rigged so that nobody EVER wins that bet, unless the player is someone the house is being nice to, like an important politician. But this particular time, the person who accidentally places the wager wins. The machinery that control the roll of the dice fails, and the lowest probability event possible in the game happens...
2. Say she bet $50 and that standard payoff for that bet is a million to one, so she wins $50 million. What is the casino going to do? I can't see them paying her - and for my story to work, they have to pay her. Why do they have to pay? Of, if they decide to pay, why did they decide to pay? It's an illegal casino, it's not like she can take them to court.
Thanks for any ideas. The first question, about some unlikely combination, is less important that they second. I can just create the name of a wager (like the Big Cash Crash) and say 'the payoff is a million to one' in the story, and probably nobody will wonder just what makes up a Big Cash Crash, but I fell like if I just say 'The casino paid her winnings and she left' people won't just skip over that part.
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Post by sandy on May 3, 2020 3:11:06 GMT
Th casino can't just decide not to pay. The casino depends on people making bets so that it can make money. If they don't pay and word of it gets out, people will not play, ruining its business. Also, the better can go to the authorities. Even though she may have broken the law by making the bet, I'm sure the authorities would overlook that offense if she were to testify against the casino. Yeah, they could just tell the bettor to sue it, but the result of taking that course of conduct.
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Post by jonclark on May 3, 2020 6:57:29 GMT
Also if the machine was supposed to pay off for someone connected to the casino, then actually paying off the bet might be needed to show that this wasn't a deliberate attempt to avoid paying off the connected person.
"I'm telling you, Mugsy, the 6-8-10-12 was supposed to pay off. Would i really rig the game for you to lose a bet for half-a-mi just to pay off some schlub I never met 50-mil? And it ain't like I'm stiffing the schlub. You saw me pay the guy. I'd even pay you the amount you'd have won- but I'm running a bit short of cash after that payout".
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Post by johnreiter902 on May 3, 2020 12:22:13 GMT
The casino has to pay, because if word gets around that they welshed, nobody will ever gamble there again. Court is unnecessary. Even illegal gamblers depend on their reputation. If they don't pay their debts the customers will go elsewhere. If they do not have the cash on hand, they will have to do three things
1) They will use every thing they've got (pretty girls, free drinks, other benefits) to get him to keep betting, so he will lose it all again.
2) offer him alternative forms of payment besides money.
3) give him their marker, which means that they guarantee to pay later, whenever he calls on them. If they don't, it proves they are welshing
If all else fails, they might pay, and then arrange to have the gambler "coincidentally" mugged on the way home, and reclaim all their cash with nobody the wiser.
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Post by dans on May 3, 2020 13:47:06 GMT
I was thinking about having her mugged after leaving the casino. I think that's the best option.
Regarding some of the other options...
In this story, the casino pays big cash to the local government, so if she wins and the casino won't pay she goes to the law,
she will probably be arrested and disappeared.
In this particular case, the mechanism that is supposed to prevent the 'Big Cash Crash' (or whatever I end up calling the big
payoff) is definitely activated, and it will fail, and this woman is the only one who placed that wager.
I do see the point of using this payoff for marketing collateral... "It proves our games aren't rigged." So Mugsy knows that he won't necessarily win if he makes that play, but if he does play and he does win, he knows he too will get paid.
I'm a bit worried that for those who know the system is supposed to be rigged are going to wonder why it failed, and maybe it might fail again.
And there are certainly going to be a lot of people who start wondering why this particular woman is so important - she must
either be well connected politically or in the underworld, or the casino wouldn't have let her win.
Thanks, all!
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